THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS TO THE REVENUE GROWTH AND FINANCIAL
PERFORMANCE BENCHMARKING ANALYSIS OF OIL & GAS COMPANIES LISTED IN THE
INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE
Fakhreza Samudera Budi, Erman Sumirat
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Email: fakhreza_budi@sbm-itb.ac.id
Abstract
The
global oil and gas sector, a crucial driver of economic vitality, remains a
focal point for investors navigating the dynamic energy market. According to
the Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia, the oil and gas
industry constitutes a significant portion, approximately 43.5%, of the
country's energy mix in 2022, equivalent to about 797 million barrels of oil
equivalent (BoE). Projections from Indonesia’s Long-Term Strategy for Low
Carbon and Climate Resilience (LTS-LCCR) 2050 anticipate an increase to 1.4
billion BoE in 2050, even under the strictest emission scenarios. Given the
pivotal role of oil and gas in Indonesia's energy landscape, it is imperative
to examine investor interest in companies within this industry. Regarding the
oil & gas companies in the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX), investors'
attention has been drawn to only a few stocks in particular due to the
attractiveness of profitable prospects in the oil and gas sector, which brings
up the question: do these “popular” oil and stocks really perform admirably
financially? Overall, this research uses the quantitative method. This research
has the purpose to
identify and analyze the financial ratios that have a significant impact on the
revenue growth of Indonesian oil & gas companies, to determine which
Indonesian oil & gas companies with significant ratios exhibit high
potential and possess a high market capitalization, to identify Indonesian oil
& gas companies with significant ratios that demonstrate high potential and
have a low market capitalization, to evaluate Indonesian oil & gas
companies with significant ratios that exhibit low potential but possess a high
market capitalization, and to compare the financial performance of the high
potential Indonesian oil & gas companies with highly reputable oil &
gas companies that are not listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. To complete
the first objective, this research uses regression analysis, which resulted in
Asset Turnover and Assets Growth as the significant ratios to the Revenue
Growth. Using these significant ratios to measure the potential, the High
Potential – High Market Cap category included AKRA, RAJA, ELSA, and HITS while
in the High Potential – Low Market Cap category, this research has found out
KOPI is qualified into this category. In the Low Potential – High Market Cap
category, TAMU and BULL are included. Lastly, when compared to worldwide
industry leaders, the IDX-listed oil & gas companies which are marked as
High Potential have found some interesting findings: AKRA have much better
Asset Turnover ratio than industry leaders, ELSA’s Assets Growth are observably
better than Halliburton and Schlumberger, and HITS’ profitability (Gross Profit
Margin) is still better than the spectacularly growing Pertamina
International Shipping.
Keywords: liquidity
ratio, debt ratio, profitability ratio, activity ratio, market capitalization,
assets growth
Introduction
The global oil and gas sector, a
linchpin of economic vitality, continually draws the attention of investors
navigating the intricate landscape of the dynamic energy market. Overall, based
on the Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia, the oil and gas
have still quite significant portion in the Indonesian energy mix in 2022,
which is around 43.5% of the total energy supply or about 797
million barrel oil equivalent (BoE). Furthermore, in the Indonesia’s
Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience (LTS-LCCR) 2050, it is
projected that oil and gas will reach 1.4 billion BoE in 2050 even with the
strictest emission scenario. Recognizing the oil and gas’ importance in the
Indonesian energy industry, it is vital to look at the investors’ interest in
companies operating in the oil and gas industry.
In the context of the Indonesian
Stock Exchange (IDX), the allure of lucrative opportunities in the oil and gas
industry has centered around a select few stocks,
with PGAS, MEDC, and AKRA emerging as focal points for investors. Traditionally,
there has been a widely held belief in the financial world that a company's
market capitalization (market cap) serves as a reliable indicator of its
financial performance. However, recent observations challenge this conventional
wisdom, unveiling a nuanced reality where the size of market cap does not
always guarantee superior financial outcomes. This revelation prompts a
critical examination of the interplay between market cap and financial
performance in the Indonesian oil and gas sector.
The core objective of this research
is to discern the pivotal financial ratios that significantly influence revenue
growth within the oil and gas industry. While market cap has often been
considered the primary metric for assessing a company's worth, this study aims
to shed light on the specific financial indicators that hold the key to
sustained revenue growth. By delving into the intricate web of financial ratios
such as Gross Profit Margin (GPM), Assets Growth, Asset Turnover,
Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and others, we seek to uncover the underlying factors
that propel revenue growth within the sector.
Moreover, this research extends
beyond the confines of the IDX, venturing into a comparative analysis between
high-potential Indonesian oil and gas companies and their more established
counterparts on the global stage. The comparison involves benchmarking the
performance of local companies against their multinational counterparts,
examining whether the financial ratios deemed significant in the Indonesian context
hold similar weight in the broader, international arena.
In navigating this exploration, we
aim to identify patterns, anomalies, and key differentiators in the financial
landscapes of high-potential Indonesian oil and gas companies when juxtaposed
with global industry leaders. This comparative lens provides a comprehensive
understanding of the financial dynamics at play and underscores the unique
challenges and opportunities present in the Indonesian oil and gas market.
This research is created to complete
the following objectives: 1. To identify and analyze the financial ratios that have a significant
impact on the growth of Indonesian oil & gas companies.
2. To determine which
Indonesian oil & gas companies with significant ratios exhibit high
potential and possess a high market capitalization. 3. To identify Indonesian oil & gas
companies with significant ratios that demonstrate high potential and have a
low market capitalization. 4. To evaluate Indonesian oil & gas companies with
significant ratios that exhibit low potential but possess a high market
capitalization. 5. To compare the financial performance of the high potential
Indonesian oil & gas companies with highly reputable oil & gas
companies that are not listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange.
Method
In this research, quantitative
research design is used. Theoretically, quantitative research is used.
Quantitative research is a means of testing objective theories by examining the
relationship among variables (Cresswell, 2009). This design is well-fitted to
determine the significance between the financial ratios and revenue growth
which then later on used to compare and classify the selected stocks. This
research uses annual time-series data type spanning through the 2018-2022
fiscal periods. The companies analyzed are the ones
listed in Section 1.3.
As mentioned in Section 2, in this
research, the regression analysis used several variables starting from
liquidity ratio, debt ratio, profitability ratios, activity ratios, and growth
ratios. However, if the correlation analysis resulted in high correlations between
one and another independent variable, some of these independent variables might
be removed to improve the regression model and interpretability.
These
variables are considered for the correlation and regression analysis:
Table 1
Variables for Regression Analysis
No. |
Variables |
Symbol |
|
Dependent
Variable |
|||
1 |
Revenue
Growth |
y |
|
Independent
Variables |
|||
2 |
Current
Ratio |
X1 |
|
3 |
Quick Ratio |
X2 |
|
4 |
Debt to
Equity Ratio |
X3 |
|
5 |
Gross
Profit Margin |
X4 |
|
6 |
Net Profit
Margin |
X5 |
|
7 |
Return on
Assets |
X6 |
|
8 |
Return on
Equity |
X7 |
|
9 |
Asset
Turnover |
X8 |
|
10 |
Total Asset
Growth |
X9 |
|
Data Collection Method
In this research, author uses secondary data to
gather the financial information data from the oil & gas companies. For the
IDX-listed companies, most of these data are extracted through Stockbit. However, if the required data is not available on
Stockbit, the financial information are assembled via
IDX website or company’s annual report. For the non-IDX-listed companies which
are used for benchmarking analysis, the financial data is taken from the
company’s official annual report or financial statement report.
As described in Section 2, this research will
conduct multiple regression analysis to find the significant ratios which drive
the revenue growth, then classify the stocks based on the significant ratios,
and finally compare the high potential oil & gas IDX-listed companies with
more reputable or multinational companies outside of the Indonesian Stock
Exchange. Several data analysis tools such as Excel and python are used
in order to complete said tasks.
Before beginning the regression analysis, correlation
analysis is performed to calculate the Pearson correlation coefficient (r). The
Pearson correlation coefficient will quantify the correlation between one
independent variable to another. This way, we can eliminate certain variables
if they are correlated to another in order to gain best regression results. In
this research, correlation analysis is performed using python with the
following code assuming that the independent variables are contained in ‘X’ variable:
To complete the regression analysis, statsmodels package in python programming
language is used. Statsmodels is part of the Python
scientific stack that is oriented towards data analysis, data science and
statistics. Built on top of the NumPy and SciPy numerical libraries, Statsmodels integrates Pandas for data handling and makes
use of Patsy[3] for an R-like formula interface. To
utilize the OLS regression in the statsmodels
package, the following codes are formulated:
Figure 1
Python Lines for OLS Regression
The ‘X’ represents the independent variables,
while ‘y’ represents the dependent variable. The program will try to fit the
dependent & independent variables in the best way possible to find the
appropriate coefficients and constant. Finally, the program will print out the summary
which includes R-squared and t-test results.
After the regression analysis is completed, we
can finally obtain the significant factors which drive the revenue growth.
These significant factors are then used to determine the IDX-listed oil &
gas companies’ potential. If a company’s significant factors are better than
other companies, then the company is decided into “High Potential”.
Consequently, if a company’s significant ratios are worse than other companies,
then it would be categorized as “Low Potential”.
Lastly, the companies with “High Potential” label
are compared to non-IDX-listed companies with higher revenue and reputation. To
clarify, the companies used as benchmarks have similar main business line in
the oil & gas industry with the ones categorized as “High Potential” in the
IDX from previously defined classification
Hasil dan Pembahasan
Liquidity Ratio Analysis
These companies resulted
various liquidity ratios. Certain companies such as INPS and ENRG have a really
low current ratios over the years compared to other companies. WINS on the
other hand had also low current ratio in 2018 (0.62) but then gradually improved
until they have a very healthy score in 2022 (2.56). Popular stocks like AKRA,
MEDC, and PGAS do not show superior liquidity scores. On the other hand, APEX
have substantially higher liquidity ratios compared to other oil & gas
companies in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The following figure shows the
average current ratio and quick ratio for each company over the last 5 fiscal
years:
Figure
2 Current Ratio and Quick Ratio
Average per Company (2018-2022)
While liquidity ratios such as
the current ratio and quick ratio are generally considered indicators of a
company's short-term financial health, a high liquidity position is not always
unequivocally beneficial. Excessive liquidity may suggest that a company is not
efficiently deploying its resources, leading to missed opportunities for higher
returns. Maintaining a substantial amount of cash or highly liquid assets may
imply a conservative approach that sacrifices potential profitability for the
sake of immediate solvency. In dynamic business environments, especially those
characterized by low interest rates, holding excessive cash might result in an
opportunity cost as the funds could have been invested in income-generating
activities or used for strategic initiatives. Additionally, industries with
high capital expenditure requirements or those experiencing rapid technological
advancements may find that deploying resources into long-term investments could
yield more substantial benefits than keeping a surplus in liquid assets.
Striking the right balance between liquidity and investment for growth is
crucial, and a nuanced approach is needed to assess the specific needs and
goals of the company within its industry context.
The following figure below
shows the debt-to-equity ratio average for each company:
Figure
3 Debt-to-Equity Ratio Average for Each Company
(2018-2022)
As reported in the table and
chart above, these companies have different ranges of debt-to-equity ratio over
the years. When assessing a company's financial structure, the debt-to-equity
ratio (DER) is a crucial indicator that sheds light on its leverage and
possible risk exposure. Since a lower DER indicates a lower debt-to-equity
ratio, strong financial health, and lower financial risk, it is generally
regarded as advantageous.
WOWS stands out among the
companies surveyed, having the lowest DER average (2018–2022), at 0.30. WOWS
can benefit from reduced reliance on debt financing during economic downturns
or uncertain financial times, as indicated by a low DER. Due to their capacity
to overcome financial difficulties without being overly indebted, companies
with low debt-to-earnings ratio (DER) are frequently seen favorably
by investors.
Conversely, MEDC has one of
the highest DER averages (3.82), indicating the opposite end of the spectrum.
It's important to understand that while a high DER may indicate financial risk
and heightened susceptibility to changes in the economy, some industries, like
the oil and gas sector, which is frequently associated with high capital
requirements, may naturally have higher debt levels. Companies deliberately use
debt to finance expansion, exploration, and operational activities in these
capital-intensive industries.
Investors must carefully
assess a company's DER in the context of its industry and business model. While
a low DER suggests financial stability, a moderate to high DER may not
necessarily be detrimental if managed prudently. Companies can use debt
strategically to fuel growth, enhance operational capabilities, and capitalize
on market opportunities.
In capital-intensive
industries like oil and gas, where substantial upfront investments are
necessary, companies may carry higher debt loads. The key is maintaining a
balance between leveraging debt for growth and avoiding excessive risk.
Investors should look beyond absolute DER values, considering the company's
overall financial strategy, operational efficiency, and the industry's capital
structure norms.
In conclusion, DER is a
critical metric in evaluating a company's financial health, but its
interpretation requires a nuanced understanding of the industry landscape.
Investors should consider not only the DER value but also the industry dynamics
and the company's strategic use of debt in their decision-making process.
The following table shows the
Return on Asset, Return on Equity, Gross Profit Margin, and Net Profit margin
ratio of the IDX-listed oil & gas companies over the last 5 fiscal years
while the figure below shows the ratio average for each company:
Table
2 Profitability Ratio from IDX-listed Oil & Gas
Companies
Ticker |
Year |
Return on Assets |
Return on Equity |
Gross Profit Margin |
Net Profit Margin |
AKRA |
2018 |
8.25% |
19.65% |
6.60% |
6.78% |
AKRA |
2019 |
3.35% |
8.60% |
8.72% |
3.24% |
AKRA |
2020 |
4.95% |
10.57% |
11.56% |
5.43% |
AKRA |
2021 |
4.73% |
11.90% |
8.92% |
4.42% |
AKRA |
2022 |
8.84% |
21.91% |
8.94% |
5.21% |
APEX |
2018 |
-20.17% |
69.08% |
-7.91% |
-113.26% |
APEX |
2019 |
4.03% |
35.89% |
20.14% |
21.52% |
APEX |
2020 |
13.24% |
35.13% |
9.72% |
81.34% |
APEX |
2021 |
1.02% |
2.79% |
35.91% |
5.59% |
APEX |
2022 |
-24.62% |
-97.50% |
24.86% |
-79.89% |
BULL |
2018 |
4.10% |
7.44% |
39.29% |
17.38% |
BULL |
2019 |
3.81% |
7.83% |
42.34% |
22.91% |
BULL |
2020 |
4.35% |
10.57% |
50.13% |
19.42% |
BULL |
2021 |
-37.87% |
-208.94% |
23.16% |
-128.99% |
BULL |
2022 |
-11.65% |
-37.70% |
21.52% |
-38.08% |
ELSA |
2018 |
4.88% |
8.38% |
9.84% |
4.17% |
ELSA |
2019 |
5.24% |
9.97% |
10.39% |
4.25% |
ELSA |
2020 |
3.29% |
6.66% |
9.60% |
3.22% |
ELSA |
2021 |
1.50% |
2.88% |
7.93% |
1.34% |
ELSA |
2022 |
4.28% |
9.19% |
7.41% |
3.07% |
ENRG |
2018 |
-1.74% |
-6.63% |
27.73% |
-3.16% |
ENRG |
2019 |
4.12% |
13.00% |
47.14% |
7.34% |
ENRG |
2020 |
6.35% |
16.95% |
39.38% |
18.04% |
ENRG |
2021 |
3.79% |
7.71% |
36.50% |
9.78% |
ENRG |
2022 |
5.59% |
11.35% |
40.63% |
14.77% |
GTSI |
2021 |
-8.98% |
-31.35% |
-2.28% |
-38.72% |
GTSI |
2022 |
2.15% |
5.77% |
35.30% |
12.44% |
HITS |
2018 |
6.10% |
31.48% |
35.95% |
15.36% |
HITS |
2019 |
5.30% |
22.78% |
33.86% |
15.26% |
HITS |
2020 |
1.96% |
8.45% |
31.79% |
8.13% |
HITS |
2021 |
-6.25% |
-33.64% |
15.91% |
-15.17% |
HITS |
2022 |
3.42% |
13.83% |
27.54% |
10.06% |
HUMI |
2021 |
-6.20% |
-16.43% |
11.57% |
-19.56% |
HUMI |
2022 |
5.11% |
9.44% |
29.08% |
11.98% |
INPS |
2019 |
-0.82% |
-2.81% |
14.07% |
-2.72% |
INPS |
2020 |
-3.82% |
-14.18% |
32.42% |
-1.56% |
INPS |
2021 |
-7.51% |
-33.73% |
17.69% |
-6.14% |
KOPI |
2018 |
-34.46% |
-63.72% |
36.14% |
-61.45% |
KOPI |
2019 |
4.53% |
7.85% |
28.72% |
3.72% |
KOPI |
2020 |
0.48% |
1.03% |
26.26% |
0.51% |
KOPI |
2021 |
1.30% |
2.04% |
28.19% |
1.06% |
KOPI |
2022 |
2.67% |
7.08% |
30.43% |
3.80% |
LEAD |
2018 |
-28.97% |
-91.93% |
5.66% |
-168.89% |
LEAD |
2019 |
-5.66% |
-21.11% |
5.06% |
-33.43% |
LEAD |
2020 |
-1.91% |
-7.14% |
18.03% |
-10.42% |
LEAD |
2021 |
-1.94% |
-7.55% |
17.32% |
-9.27% |
LEAD |
2022 |
-4.48% |
-20.57% |
12.17% |
-20.22% |
MEDC |
2018 |
-0.98% |
-4.21% |
51.89% |
-2.33% |
MEDC |
2019 |
-0.46% |
-2.29% |
41.14% |
-0.94% |
MEDC |
2020 |
-3.20% |
-18.43% |
29.43% |
-16.22% |
MEDC |
2021 |
0.83% |
4.38% |
42.76% |
4.73% |
MEDC |
2022 |
7.66% |
34.09% |
53.89% |
23.85% |
PGAS |
2018 |
3.84% |
11.85% |
33.84% |
9.42% |
PGAS |
2019 |
0.92% |
2.64% |
31.89% |
2.94% |
PGAS |
2020 |
-3.51% |
-11.86% |
29.61% |
-7.48% |
PGAS |
2021 |
4.05% |
12.03% |
19.33% |
12.01% |
PGAS |
2022 |
4.53% |
12.38% |
21.87% |
11.25% |
RAJA |
2018 |
5.98% |
12.45% |
17.37% |
10.53% |
RAJA |
2019 |
3.16% |
5.64% |
14.02% |
5.18% |
RAJA |
2020 |
0.83% |
1.38% |
16.31% |
2.55% |
RAJA |
2021 |
0.92% |
2.21% |
15.70% |
3.43% |
RAJA |
2022 |
3.39% |
8.12% |
19.80% |
8.56% |
RUIS |
2018 |
2.73% |
6.66% |
16.41% |
2.08% |
RUIS |
2019 |
2.64% |
7.64% |
14.72% |
2.07% |
RUIS |
2020 |
2.05% |
6.03% |
14.67% |
1.73% |
RUIS |
2021 |
1.41% |
3.79% |
13.18% |
1.09% |
RUIS |
2022 |
1.59% |
3.84% |
12.43% |
1.17% |
SHIP |
2018 |
4.31% |
13.92% |
39.41% |
21.39% |
SHIP |
2019 |
5.82% |
16.65% |
39.76% |
21.51% |
SHIP |
2020 |
5.75% |
17.32% |
44.04% |
26.68% |
SHIP |
2021 |
4.61% |
14.09% |
39.85% |
20.44% |
SHIP |
2022 |
4.98% |
15.46% |
37.43% |
19.38% |
SICO |
2019 |
3.93% |
12.11% |
26.44% |
3.45% |
SICO |
2020 |
7.50% |
15.78% |
37.31% |
5.97% |
SICO |
2021 |
9.03% |
15.65% |
41.43% |
8.57% |
SICO |
2022 |
8.31% |
10.60% |
44.87% |
14.10% |
SOCI |
2018 |
2.00% |
4.09% |
36.62% |
10.12% |
SOCI |
2019 |
1.36% |
2.80% |
32.62% |
5.95% |
SOCI |
2020 |
4.13% |
7.56% |
27.78% |
20.97% |
SOCI |
2021 |
0.86% |
1.48% |
27.80% |
4.24% |
SOCI |
2022 |
1.02% |
1.73% |
28.30% |
4.49% |
SUNI |
2020 |
-1.66% |
-2.91% |
12.50% |
-4.81% |
SUNI |
2021 |
5.33% |
9.29% |
21.70% |
9.12% |
SUNI |
2022 |
11.81% |
19.98% |
26.48% |
13.52% |
TAMU |
2018 |
-3.83% |
-7.47% |
0.45% |
-25.34% |
TAMU |
2019 |
-11.65% |
-24.78% |
6.94% |
-65.74% |
TAMU |
2020 |
-1.13% |
-2.31% |
14.15% |
-6.13% |
TAMU |
2021 |
-6.27% |
-12.37% |
2.47% |
-38.89% |
TAMU |
2022 |
-7.71% |
-15.75% |
3.43% |
-43.43% |
WINS |
2018 |
-9.25% |
-17.07% |
1.54% |
-57.43% |
WINS |
2019 |
-5.38% |
-9.81% |
-2.31% |
-30.00% |
WINS |
2020 |
-5.61% |
-9.97% |
2.65% |
-34.49% |
WINS |
2021 |
0.09% |
0.15% |
14.10% |
0.33% |
WINS |
2022 |
0.59% |
0.87% |
18.40% |
1.37% |
WOWS |
2019 |
2.11% |
2.88% |
36.72% |
9.60% |
WOWS |
2020 |
0.19% |
0.24% |
23.21% |
0.89% |
WOWS |
2021 |
-4.74% |
-6.04% |
0.01% |
-35.42% |
WOWS |
2022 |
-4.07% |
-5.19% |
2.02% |
-28.28% |
Figure
4 Average Profitability Ratios (2018-2022) for
IDX-listed Oil & Gas Companies
Analyzing the profitability metrics of the listed companies is
crucial for investors seeking insight into their financial health and potential
returns. Among the companies with the lowest Return on Assets (ROA), we observe
that BULL, LEAD, and TAMU consistently exhibit negative figures, indicating
challenges in effectively utilizing their assets to generate net profits.
Negative ROA implies potential inefficiencies in asset management, which could
be a concern for investors as it signals lower earnings relative to the total
assets deployed.
Companies that consistently
have negative Return on Equity (ROE), like BULL, LEAD, and INPS, stand out in
this regard. A negative return on equity (ROE) indicates that these businesses
may have trouble making a profit for their investors. Investors frequently view
return on equity (ROE) as a crucial indicator of a company's profitability in
relation to shareholder equity. Low ROE values can cast doubt on the company's
ability to make sound financial and strategic decisions.
Examining Gross Profit Margin
(GPM), KOPI, GTSI, and INPS are notable for having lower figures. GPM reflects
the percentage of revenue retained after accounting for the cost of goods sold,
and lower values may indicate higher production costs or pricing pressures. For
investors, a low GPM could signify potential challenges in operational
efficiency, especially in industries where cost management is critical.
lower values may indicate
higher production costs or pricing pressures. For investors, a low GPM could
signify potential challenges in maintaining profitability, especially in
industries where cost management is critical.
Similarly, in Net Profit
Margin (NPM), BULL, HUMI, and INPS consistently demonstrate lower figures. NPM
represents the proportion of revenue retained as net income, considering all
costs and expenses. Investors typically value a healthy NPM, and consistently
low values may suggest operational and financial inefficiencies.
On the other hand, businesses
that exhibit the highest ROA, ROE, GPM, and NPM are regarded as strong
performers. Notable ROA numbers for AKRA, ENRG, and SHIP highlight their
effective asset use and potential for increased returns. SICO, SHIP, WINS, and
SHIP continuously show good ROE performance, suggesting that equity is used
profitably to create value for shareholders.
Higher GPM numbers are displayed
by MEDC, SHIP, SICO, and SHIP, which can reassure investors by indicating
efficient cost control and possibly greater pricing power. Comparably,
businesses with high NPM figures—SHIP, SICO, and PGAS, for example—are skilled
at converting revenue into net income, a sign of profitable operations and
acceptable financial management.
Correlation Analysis
As described in Section 2, Pearson correlation
coefficient is determined to find the inter-relationship between several
independent variables. The correlated independent variables may have to be
removed so that the regression analysis with the Revenue Growth can avoid
multicollinearity. The following heatmap chart created from python displays the
Pearson’s correlation coefficient between all of the independent variables:
After Quick Ratio, Return on Assets, and Return on
Equity are removed, we can once again check for the correlation between the
variables. As can be observed in the updated correlation heatmap below, all of
the independent variables have low correlation between one another therefore
multicollinearity can be avoided. Also, it should be noted that liquidity
ratio, debt ratio, activity ratio, growth ratio, and profitability ratio are
all still represented in the regression analysis even after the removal of several
correlated variables.
Regression Analysis
Accommodating the Current Ratio, Debt-to-Equity Ratio,
Asset Turnover, Gross Profit Margin, Net Profit Margin, and Assets Growth as
the independent variables, we can find the relationship between these variables
and Revenue Growth using python as explained in Section 3. The regression
analysis uses the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method which are commonly used
in these types of research. The following output showed the result of the
regression analysis:
Figure
12 OLS Regression Results from Statsmodels Package
As can be observed from the figure above, the
R-squared from the model resulted in 0.219 which means 21.9% of the Revenue
Growth variability can be explained by Assets Growth, Current Ratio,
Debt-to-Equity Ratio, Asset Turnover, Gross Profit Margin, and Net Profit
Margin.
Total Assets Growth stands out as a significant
variable, showing a t-test probability of 0.026, which is statistically
significant. The null hypothesis, according to which Total Assets Growth is
statistically insignificant to Revenue Growth, has been successfully refuted by
this variable since its value is less than 0.05. This suggests that businesses
that see an increase in their total assets will probably see a significant and favourable
effect on their total revenue growth. According to this analysis, total assets
seem to be a major factor driving revenue growth, so analysts and investors
should keep a close eye on it.
Asset Turnover have turned out to be statistically
significant to the Revenue Growth in the IDX-listed oil & gas companies’
universe since its p-value is 0.032. The null hypothesis, according to which
Asset Turnover is statistically insignificant to Revenue Growth, has been
successfully refuted by this variable since its value is less than 0.05. The
Asset Turnover, which calculates a company’s ability to turn their assets into
revenue stream have proven to be vital in growing a company’s revenue in this
selection of companies.
Stock Classification Based on
The Significant Ratios
The groups considered for this
analysis comprised in the following table:
No. |
Group |
Criteria |
1 |
High Potential – High Market Cap |
Asset Turnover > Asset Turnover Median, Total Asset Growth > Total Asset Growth Median, Market Cap > Market Cap Median |
2 |
High Potential – Low Market Cap |
Asset Turnover > Asset Turnover Median, Total Asset Growth > Total Asset Growth Median, Market Cap < Market Cap Median |
3 |
Low Potential – High Market Cap |
Asset Turnover < Asset Turnover Median, Total Asset Growth < Total Asset Growth Median, Market Cap > Market Cap Median |
The median used as the
pinpoint differ over the years due to various unique periodical circumstances
in those years. Essentially, these categories offer investors a thorough
framework for evaluating and planning their investments in the IDX-listed oil
and gas industry. Investors can customize their portfolios in the dynamic
energy market according to their growth expectations and risk tolerance by
focusing on established underachievers, exploring opportunities among
underdogs, or going for stability with high-potential leaders. And so, the
results of the classification from the 2018-2022 fiscal years are described in
the following table:
Kesimpulan
Based on the analysis on Section 4,
this research came into the following conclusions to answer the research
questions: 1. According to the
regression analysis and t-test results, Asset Turnover and Assets Growth are
significant to the Revenue Growth in the IDX-listed oil and gas companies’
universe. This conclusion is based on the p-value from the t-test for
independent variables. The p-value for Asset Turnover and Assets Growth
turned out to be 0.032 and 0.026. Since these values are less than 0.05, these
independent variables are concluded to be significant to the dependent variable
(Revenue Growth). 2. As described in Section 3 and Section 4, High
Potential is defined as stocks with better-than-median scores for the significant
ratios. This research has found out that Asset Turnover and Assets Growth are
significant to the Revenue Growth. Furthermore, High Market Cap is defined as
stocks with better-than-median market capitalization. Therefore, by this
definition, focusing on the latest fiscal year (2022), this research has
concluded that AKRA, RAJA, HITS, and ELSA qualified to be in High Potential –
High Market Cap category. 3. High Potential stocks are those that score higher
than the median for the important ratios, as explained in Sections 3 and 4. The
results of this study indicate that revenue growth is significantly influenced
by asset turnover and asset growth. Opposed to the second conclusion, the Low
Market Cap definition means that the company have lower market capitalization
than the IDX-listed oil & gas companies’ median. Therefore, focusing on the
latest fiscal year (2022), this research has concluded that KOPI qualified into
the High Potential – Low Market Cap category. As opposed to the first and
second conclusion, Low Potential is defined as companies who have
lower-than-median Asset Turnover and Assets Growth. According to this
research’s findings, BULL and TAMU qualified into this category since they have
poor Asset Turnover and Assets Growth but high market capitalization. BULL and
TAMU may be considered to be the underachiever of the IDX-listed oil & gas
companies since they have successfully attracted investors but failed to
perform or grow as expected.
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